Chances of Aurora Borealis Thurs - Sun for Washington, Oregon, the Coast

Updated 10/04/24 at 8:18 p.m.
By Oregon Coast Beach Connection Staff

(Manzanita, Oregon) – LATEST UPDATE AT 8:18 P.M. OCT 4 - Yet another set of CME's headed this way. Strong showing of northern lights on Sat (Oct 5) possible, maybe Sun. Weather clear. Larger update Good Chance of Aurora Borealis in Washington, Oregon and Coastline Skies Tonight, Sunday

Another big solar event took place on our sun October 1 and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said it's probably going to result in a fairly strong aurora borealis for some of the northern regions of Earth. However, there's a decent chance Washington and Oregon will get to see it – although it'll be faint enough that only cameras will be able to capture it. (Photo of Yachats - Jacklyn Larsen Photography)

If weather will cooperate is another matter, certainly for the Washington coastline and I-5 corridor areas like Seattle and Washington. It's likely that Thursday will be the best night to spot this, with Kp index predictions showing early to later evening being the highest.

“The aurora may become visible over many of the northern states and some of the lower Midwest to Oregon,” said the SWPC.

The SWPC has issued a geomagnetic storm watch for October 3 through the 5th, meaning now through Friday since those dates are in UTC time (which is eight hours ahead of the NW).

At least they mentioned Oregon: but the area is definitely at the outer edges of the influence of solar material. While the solar storm stuff is predicted to be rather strong at times, at a Kp index of near 7 (but more often near 6), that doesn't mean us further south.

Jim Todd, astronomy expert with Portland's OMSI, told Oregon Coast Beach Connection those higher Kp numbers would be for Canada.

“Just barely visible towards the north from Oregon,” he said. “Good camera with long exposures helps.”

It's going to be another situation of get out your camera and see if anything shows in your gear.

For awhile on Monday, it all sounded much more hopeful. This solar storm comes from a massive X7.1 flare that shot out of the sun on Monday, the second largest since the big flare back in May that resulted in so much aurora action around the world.

See Washington Coast Weather - Oregon Coast Weather - Inland Oregon Weather

Part of that was that more than one CME (coronal mass ejection) combined with others. That didn't happen this time, among other elements that cause it to not be as big of a show.

Port Orford - courtesy Discover Port Orford

There is some considerable strength in the geomagnetic activity on Friday night, but not everyone in the Pacific Northwest will get a good view then. Thursday's possible display will depend on breaks in cloud cover for some areas like Portland or Seattle, and Friday will likely be a total washout there – literally. Rain is expected that night.

Kp index predictions from the SWPC show greatest strength after sunset through maybe 1 a.m. on the West Coast, but you're still better off looking at the half hour predictions at the space weather site.

What's in store for the weather here?

Seaside Aquarium photo

The Seattle area is showing increasing clouds on Thursday just as Portland is, and mostly cloudy and rain on Friday. Eastern Washington and southern Oregon are looking at clear to mostly clear on those two nights.

On the Washington coast, conditions won't be as accommodating with mostly cloudy to rainy after dark, especially on Friday night.

Oregon coast towns get it a little better, in general. On the north coast, from Seaside down through the Tillamook Coast it looks to be mostly clear on Thursday night but mostly cloudy on Friday. The central coast and upper part of the south are similar, though there will be less clouds the farther south you go towards Coos Bay.

The southern end of the coast – the Curry County areas of Port Orford through Brookings – show mostly clear on both nights. However, if the aurora gets down that far is another story.

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