UPDATE: Chances for Pre-NY Eve Aurora Borealis for Washington, Oregon, Coastlines. But Weather?

Published 12/30/24 at 6:35 p.m.
By Oregon Coast Beach Connection Staff

(Portland, Oregon) – UPDATES: PEAK TIMES HAVE MOVED TO DAYLIGHT HOURS. Chances for a showing of aurora borealis on the night before New Years Eve as far south as Oregon and its coastline are not bad, but they're even better up north in Washington and the coast farther up. A fairly strong CME (coronal mass ejection) launched off the sun a couple of days ago and is headed for Earth, set to start hitting peak times in the wee hours of December 31, the morning before New Years Eve. (Above: What the aurora borealis looked like in Cannon Beach earlier this year. Steven Smith / Solution 7 Media. Smith also caught the rare white streak in an aurora display)

UPDATES: The actual peaks have moved to daylight hours around noon New Years Eve, but a G1 storm starts kicking in about 3 a.m. to dawn. You WILL need a camera setup.

With northern lights visible as far away as three hundred miles, that puts even part of the south Oregon coast under the realm of possibility.

There's only one problem, and it's a big one: clouds. And lots of them. However, Monday will get a little clearing in many areas. So we may get an intermittent glimpse. However, since peak times of a G3 storm haved moved to around noon, and thus the hours before dawn are your better chances, you may encounter the full cloud scenario of most forecasts for the day.

Monday night, just before New Years Eve in areas like Portland, Seattle, Bandon, Newport, Salem, Ocean Shores or Olympia, show varying amounts clearing. That night will apparently have some cloud breaks, but that doesn't so far appear in the forecast for Tuesday, New Years Eve. Luckily, the bulk of the action takes place Monday.

See  Oregon Coast Weather (including tides) - Inland Oregon Weather

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the biggest impact will start around noon in the Pacific Northwest, but some lighter geomagnetic storm actions happen through the early hours of December 31, 2024.

It would be a great sight for the new year – if only. But the aurora is gone by that night.

Various sources, including SolarHam, are saying there's a 50% chance of a strong aurora showing in the mid-tier states on Monday. While Oregon counts in that category it is at the lower end. Most of the show will be seen north of the 50th parallel, which is just inside Canada's borders.

“Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude,” SWPC said. “Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.”

G2 storm begins around 5 a.m., which increases your chances for getting it on camera.

NOTE: REST OF ARTICLE IS NOW OUTDATED: According to SWPC, it will reach G3 levels (strong) from 9 a.m. UTC to 12 p.m. UTC, December 31. Universal time is 7 hours ahead of Oregon and Washington.

It all begins ramping up during the day, and after the daylight hours of New Years Eve's it quickly starts to dissipate.

In May, Manuela Durson caught this amazing display way down in Bandon on south Oregon coast. It's been a stellar year for the aurora borealis, but it's starting to wane in activity and visibility. - Manuela Durson Fine Arts

Those predictions are more relevant to higher latitudes, and mid-tier states like Oregon usually get the lower end of these displays.

Aurora borealis comes from a mass of particles and plasma from the sun interacting with the Earth's magnetic field, which is actually what protects us from events like this. Without it, life on Earth would get exterminated very quickly.

A relative of the aurora present all the time: Green Nightglow Above Us All the Time, You Just Didn't Know

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Courtesy Seaside Aquarium

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Andre' GW Hagestedt is editor, owner and primary photographer / videographer of Oregon Coast Beach Connection, an online publication that sees over 1 million pageviews per month. He is also author of several books about the coast.

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