Good Chance of Aurora Borealis in Washington, Oregon and Coastline Skies Tonight, Sunday

Published 10/05/24 at 11:05 p.m.
By Oregon Coast Beach Connection Staff

(Portland, Oregon) – UPDATE 11:05 p.m.: TIMING NOW ABOUT 1 A.M THROUGH 5 A.M. BETTER CHANCES. NO GUARANTEES, HOWEVER.

Once again, another major solar flare is bringing the possibility of northern lights to the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, with most areas in Washington and Oregon showing clear skies that night – including Portland, Seattle and the Washington and Oregon coast. While these events are difficult to predict, this one is showing all the signs of being quite a powerful display even well into Oregon. (Above: northern lights in Newport, Oregon coast this summer / Newport Parks and Rec)

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said an X9.0 solar flare erupted on the sun on October 3, not long after another big one had fired off two days prior, the effects of which reached Earth Thursday night. With copious aurora borealis already going on (and getting captured on the north Washington coast), this new set showed some large coronal mass ejections (CMEs - meaning solar material). That has resulted in a major geomagnetic storm watch for tonight and into Sunday night.

Parts of this are expected to be a G3 storm and maybe higher, the SWPC said.

“G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05-06 Oct due to the aforementioned CME effects,” the agency said. “A chance for isolated periods of G4 (Severe) storming is possible if the arrival of these CMEs coincide with one another, and are not separated by an appreciable amount of time as WSA-Enlil output suggests. However, confidence in this outcome is low. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 07 Oct with any glancing influence from the CME that left the Sun early on 04 Oct coupled with positive polarity CH HSS onset.”

G3 translates to some extremely colorful sightings far north of Oregon, in upper Washington or Canada. But geo storms of that strength can mean decent effects here, although not necessarily viewable with the naked eye. Check the 30-minute aurora borealis forecast

Bandon in May, courtesy Manuela Durson - see Manuela Durson Fine Arts

This storm could come close to what we saw in May, however, when exceptional photos were taken in Bandon, Port Orford, Seattle, Portland, Lincoln City, Yachats and all over the region.

SEE UPDATES AT TOP. The timing of this is difficult to pinpoint, but SWPC is showing the storm at its strongest in the early evening hours tonight and into about midnight or 1 a.m.

They are showing the strongest Kp index of 7 during the daylight hours of the Pacific Northwest and around dusk, with it lowering slightly to 6.67 until 10 p.m. and then dropping to Kp 6 through midnight and to about 1 a.m.

The "view line" - seen in red in the SWPC graphic - does appear to leave much of southwest Oregon out, but it is possible to see the northern lights some 600 miles away.

See Washington Coast Weather - Oregon Coast Weather - Inland Oregon Weather

The SWPC said it was the strongest X-class flare since 2017. This one, and the X7.1 flare that erupted just two days before that, are both from the AR 3842 section of the sun that has been extremely active lately. The sun is going through its usual ten-year cycle of this kind of display. That means this is not that unusual, and there should be more strenuous flares into the new year. Also see Trick to Spotting Some Sneaker Waves on Oregon Coast / Washington Coast

Luckily for those along the Washington coast and Oregon coast – as well as inland areas like Eugene, Tacoma, Salem, Silverton, or Kelso – National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts are clear. It will be chilly at night, however. Sunday is also clear in most places, and the possibilities of seeing the aurora boralis are okay at that point, though the action is dropping to a G1.

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Andre' GW Hagestedt is editor, owner and primary photographer / videographer of Oregon Coast Beach Connection, an online publication that sees over 1 million pageviews per month. He is also author of several books about the coast.

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