Published 12/24/08
Research Suggests Winds Mean Climate Change
for Oregon Coast
|
Newport's economy also runs on its fishing fleet, which
can be impacted by the dead zone. |
(Santa Cruz, California) - Climate change may have a variety
of impacts on wind strength along the west coast, and in turn affect other
climate aspects of that region, say scientists.
Researchers at the Climate Change and Impacts Laboratory
at the University of California, Santa Cruz, recently released documents
that say future increases in wind strength in these areas may have far-reaching
effects, including more intense upwelling of cold water along the Oregon
coast early in the season and increased fire danger in Southern California.
Earth scientist Mark Snyder presented the findings last
week at a conference of American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco.
It all points to some bigger weather extremes, an increased frequency
in large wind events along the Oregon coast and an effect on the infamous
"dead zone" that's been occurring along the central coast.
|
A stormy, windy Manzanita. |
Snyder's group studied the possible climate changes coming
to the west coast of the U.S. because of global warming and how it drives
increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses. The regional climate model
they used suggested a general increase in wind speeds along the coast
is likely to accompany regional changes in the area.
"What we think is going on is that land temperatures
are increasing at a faster rate than the ocean temperatures, and this
thermal gradient between the land and the ocean is driving increased winds,"
Snyder said in a press release.
The researchers conducted multiple runs of their regional
model to compare simulations of the coastal climate for two time periods:
1968 to 2000 ("modern climate") and 2038 to 2070 ("future
climate"). The regional model was driven by input from the global
climate models used in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). The future climate projections were
based on a "high-growth" emissions scenario (A2) thought to
provide an upper range of possible future climates, although Snyder noted
that recent global carbon dioxide emissions have exceeded even the highest
projections of earlier IPCC reports.
|
Wind events affect storm and storm surges,
which eroded part of a highway cliff in Newport in 2007 (photo Guy
DiTorrice). |
The results showed increases in wind speeds of up to 2
meters per second, which is a large change in relation to current average
wind speeds of about 5 meters per second, Snyder said. One effect of these
increased winds may be earlier and more intense upwelling of cold water
along the coast.
While upwelling is a positive dynamic in the world’s
oceans, bringing lots of rich nutrients upward by pulling deeper water
higher in the marine ecosystem, it seems to be veering out of control
along the Oregon coast. Researchers at OSU think too much upwelling may
be causing the massive "dead zone" that has begun to appear
with alarming regularity off the Oregon coast. This is being driven by
stronger, more persistent winds, and then stimulating excessive growth
of the microscopic algae known as phytoplankton. Those begin choking the
ocean’s ecosystem as they sink to the bottom, decompose in huge
numbers and suck the oxygen out of the water.
The effect can be devastating to local fish and crab populations.
|
Storm debris at a Cannon Beach beach access. |
Snyder said these conditions may become more prevalent
in the future, and stronger winds all along the coast may cause the Oregon
dead zone to expand into California waters.
Strong winds can also create extremely hazardous fire conditions,
as was seen this fall in Southern California – or last year's mega-storm
in December.
On the positive side, strong winds would be good for the
growing wind energy industry. Snyder also noted that an enhanced sea breeze
during the warm months of the year has a cooling effect along the coast.
Such a cooling trend could have many ramifications, particularly for coastal
species adapted to seasonal changes in temperatures and fog, he said.
Snyder's coauthors are graduate student Travis O'Brien
and Lisa Sloan, professor of Earth and planetary sciences and director
of the Climate Change and Impacts Lab.
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