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National Weather Service Predictions: What It Means for Oregon's Coast

Storm waves hit Manzanita

(Oregon Coast) – It’s likely that Oregon’s coastline will experience a wetter and colder winter than usual in the coming months, which probably means more flooding and a lot of rain.

It’s still uncertain what that means for winter storm watchers. But for those looking to take advantage of the nicer days that pop up with greater regularity than most of the tourists are aware of, those days may not be so regular.

It all comes down to La Nina conditions for the world, which the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say we’re headed for.

“The development of La Niña conditions is supported by increasing below-normal-sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and stronger-than average easterly winds across the west-central equatorial Pacific,” said NOAA in a press release. "Nearly all operational dynamical models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System and many of the statistical models also favor a La Niña event."

Storms of winter of 2006 caused this kind of flooding in Nehalem (photo Rachel Sip, BeachConnection.net)

The result is likely wetter-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier-than-normal conditions in the already drought-stricken southwestern U.S. this fall.

"These conditions also reinforce NOAA's August forecast for an above normal Atlantic hurricane season," said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

At Portland’s branch office for the National Weather Service (NWS), Warning Coordination Meteorologist Tyree Wilde says it’s already been happening. “We’ve already been having a lot of rain,” Wilde said. “We expect this La Nina to continue into 2008.”

The official position of NOAA is that they haven’t officially declared a La Nina year just yet, however. NOAA declares the onset of a La Niña event when the three-month average seasurface temperature departure exceeds -0.5 degrees Celsius (-0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the east-central equatorial Pacific.

Big waves hit near Depoe Bay

Those conditions are almost met, so the signs are pointing quite heavily towards La Nina and have been all year. Coastal locals often complained this summer of more rain than usual, especially on weekends.

Some who watch the beaches of Oregon quite closely have been thinking these kinds of conditions mean more storms – which in turn mean lower sand levels, more discoveries, more beachcombing fun and a host of other interesting aspects to coastal tourism and for nature lovers. But Wilde said just because it may be cooler and wetter doesn’t mean that more windstorms and big waves will pound the coastline.

Lots of snow may also accompany this year's La Nina, although last year's heavy snow on the coast was unusual (photo Tiffany Boothe, Seaside Aquarium)

“It will likely be above normal rain, which has been typical of La Nina’s in the past,” Wilde said. “It doesn’t always mean more storms. That’s not necessarily going to happen. And as for predicting whether or not there will be more storms, that’s still beyond our science. Although in October we already had a very powerful storm – rather early. It was more like a midwinter storm.”

Wilde said it is certainly possible this La Nina year will bring more storms and bigger ones, but more flooding is more likely.

Oddly enough, years that are not La Nina or El Nino years – what Wilde called “neutral years” – have historically been the most dynamic. “Ironically, those neutral years have typically been prone to more extreme weather, more powerful storms that happen more frequently.”

4,000-year-old forest stumps at Neskowin

Tom Horning, a geologist on the north Oregon coast and with the North Coast Natural History Center, said stormy waves last year carved out excessively low sand levels on Oregon’s beaches, resulting in some wild discoveries that awed the geology world. Many ancient forest remnants were unearthed on the north and central coast, including almost never-seen stumps at Hug Point – just south of Cannon Beach – and a few other geologic oddities. The forest stumps up and down the coast are probably around 4,000 years old, but the ones that appeared briefly at Hug Point could’ve been as old as 80,000 years old.

Still, several conditions have to be met for sand to get carved out so deeply, Horning said. A lot of winter storms don’t guarantee that.

“Generally, bigger waves come with more storms, and that means more erosion of the beaches,” Horning said. “Depending on the coincidence of waves with high tides, we could have a banner year for beach and dune erosion. On the other hand, timing is everything. If the waves miss the high tides, it may just be an average winter. Keep an eye on the Navy website for waves.”

See BeachConnection.net's Oregon Coast Weather for up-to-the-minute conditions.

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